Cat risk: why forecasting climate change is a disaster

The year is 1987. The worst storm in centuries is about to sideswipe the UK with hurricane-strength winds. Notoriously – folklorically – BBC meteorologist Michael Fish addresses a viewer’s concerns: “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way. Well, if you’re watching: don’t worry, there isn’t.”

The storm cost the insurance industry an estimated £2 billion ($2.5 billion). Although Fish claimed his comment was taken out of context,